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Details of Grant 

EPSRC Reference: GR/S61577/01
Title: Bayesian inference for discretely observed continuous-time processes
Principal Investigator: Roberts, Professor G O
Other Investigators:
Godsill, Professor S
Researcher Co-Investigators:
Project Partners:
Nuffield College
Department: Mathematics and Statistics
Organisation: Lancaster University
Scheme: Standard Research (Pre-FEC)
Starts: 01 February 2004 Ends: 31 January 2007 Value (£): 173,098
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:
Statistics & Appl. Probability
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:
Communications Financial Services
Related Grants:
GR/S61584/01
Panel History:  
Summary on Grant Application Form
Although it is often natural to model observed stochastic phenomena in continuous time, observed data is always discrete. Moreover, unlike the continuous-time likelihood, the likelihood of the discrete skeleton chain is very often unavailable. Where data is observed on a sufficiently fine grid of times, likelihood-based inference is straightforward since accurate approximations to the continuous-time likelihood are available. When data is not sufficiently fine, a Bayesian approach using MCMC requires the imputation of additional data. However, for many stochastic process models such as diffusions, this is not a routine application of data-augmentation since the dependence between missing data and volatility is arbitrary large leading to extremely poor convergence of the obvious algorithm. This project will develop methodology for effective data-augmentation for these models. Generic model types such as diffusion processes with parameterised families of drift and diffusion coefficients will be studied. However other more specific model types where data-augmentation encounters particular problems, will also be analysed, including CTAR models, jump-diffusion models, and stochastic volatility models. Substantial application areas in the analysis of audio signals and financial time series will be considered.
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Organisation Website: http://www.lancs.ac.uk