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EPSRC Reference: GR/K77617/01
Title: NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF BAROCLINIC FLOWS AND ITS IMPLICATIONSFOR WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORCASTING
Principal Investigator: Moroz, Dr IM
Other Investigators:
Read, Professor PL Fowler, Professor A Smith, Professor LA
Researcher Co-Investigators:
Project Partners:
Pre Nexus Migration
Department: Mathematical Institute
Organisation: University of Oxford
Scheme: Standard Research (Pre-FEC)
Starts: 01 October 1995 Ends: 30 September 1998 Value (£): 2,671
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:
Non-linear Systems Mathematics
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:
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Summary on Grant Application Form
Our underlying objective is to understand the growth of uncertainty when predicting nonlinear systems. With this aim we shall reconstruct the state space dynamics of baroclinic flows observed in the thermally driven rotating fluid annulus by two distinct methods: a non-parametric modelling using, for example, radial basis functions and reconstructed model equation of motion using a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition. We shall contrast the strengths and weaknesses of both and address problems of initialisation and evaluation of predictions for this nonlinear system. We shall use ensemble forecasting techniques to estimate the utility of the forecast (assuming a perfect model) and previous prediction error to evaluate the state dependent quality of imperfect models. The difficulties involved in predicting annulus flows parallel those encountered in weather and climate prediction, nut in a laboratory system sufficient data may be gathered to resolve them.
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Organisation Website: http://www.ox.ac.uk