| EPSRC Reference: |
GR/K52522/01 |
| Title: |
NATIONAL MULTIMODAL TRAVEL FORECASTS |
| Principal Investigator: |
Nash, Professor CA |
| Other Investigators: |
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| Researcher Co-Investigators: |
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| Project Partners: |
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| Department: |
Institute for Transport Studies |
| Organisation: |
University of Leeds |
| Scheme: |
Standard Research (Pre-FEC) |
| Starts: |
02 October 1995 |
Ends: |
01 April 1999 |
Value (£): |
196,307
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| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Transport Ops & Management |
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Summary on Grant Application Form |
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There are over 100 agencies producing forecasts of the UK's macro-economic performance but only one agency (the Department of Transport) that produces national forecasts for the transport market. Moreover, the modelling process used has a number of technical flaws and has serious omissions in terms of the lack of information on the impact of key policy variables and the lack of coherent national forecasts of bus and rail use. The aim of this research is to develop a coherent set of national and regional travel forecasts based on a hierarchy of techniques. Firstly, a series of household trip rate models will be developed based on National Travel Survey data. Secondly, evidence on elasticities and cross elasticities will be determined from direct demand models using time series data. Thirdly, disaggregate models of the bus and rail markets will be reviewed and a disaggregate model of the car market developed. These disaggregate models will provide supplementary evidence on elasticities, cross-elasticities and a deeper insight into the car market. Spreadsheet forecasting models will be developed that will predict the effect on national travel demand of current policies and the likely effect of alternative transport policies, such as road pricing.
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Key Findings |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Potential use in non-academic contexts |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Impacts |
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| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
| Summary |
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| Date Materialised |
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Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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| Project URL: |
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| Further Information: |
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| Organisation Website: |
http://www.leeds.ac.uk |