| EPSRC Reference: |
GR/R22353/01 |
| Title: |
Statistical Population Dynamics of Respiratory Childhood Diseases |
| Principal Investigator: |
Finkenstädt, Professor BF |
| Other Investigators: |
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| Researcher Co-Investigators: |
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| Project Partners: |
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| Department: |
Statistics |
| Organisation: |
University of Warwick |
| Scheme: |
Fast Stream |
| Starts: |
23 April 2001 |
Ends: |
22 October 2002 |
Value (£): |
60,566
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| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Medical science & disease |
Statistics & Appl. Probability |
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| EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications: |
| Environment |
Healthcare |
| Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology |
No relevance to Underpinning Sectors |
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| Related Grants: |
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| Panel History: |
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Summary on Grant Application Form |
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Astochastic epidemic model is proposed for explaining the observed spatio-tempoal dynamics of measles inEngland and Wales. The disease transmission is modeled as a discrete SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered) model. The model explains remarkably well the dynamics of large host populations with regular outbreks. Populations below the critical community size of about 250,000 inhabitants experience temporal and local extinction of the disease. Here, the reintroduction through contact with infected individuals from other areas is an important latent stochastic variable. This proposal is concerned with the estimation of such a model from time series data on case notification. The suggested model is a non-Gaussian non-linear model and the estimation is considerably complicated by the presence of unobserved variables such as the migration process and the under-reporting of cases.
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Key Findings |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Potential use in non-academic contexts |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Impacts |
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| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
| Summary |
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| Date Materialised |
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Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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| Project URL: |
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| Further Information: |
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| Organisation Website: |
http://www.warwick.ac.uk |