Details of Grant 

EPSRC Reference:	GR/J38796/01
Title:	INTELLIGENT MARKETING INTEGRATED SYSTEM (IMIS) IED4/1/8022
Principal Investigator:	Moss, Professor SJ
Other Investigators:
Researcher Co-Investigators:
Project Partners:
Department:	International Business Unit
Organisation:	Manchester Metropolitan University
Scheme:	Standard Research (Pre-FEC)
Starts:	01 January 1994	Ends:	30 June 1997	Value (£):	280,786
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:	Artificial Intelligence
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:	Retail Information Technologies
Related Grants:
Panel History:
Summary on Grant Application Form
To develop a modelling methodology integrating classical statistical methods and non-linear statistical methods as a basis for practical models of markets for retail goods and services and to build appropriate demonstrator models.Progress:Building on earlier work, several functioning simulation models of markets for spirits have been developed and compared with OLS models using the same numerical data series. The results have been promising in that, for data series tracked well by OLS models, our non-linear models incorporating the qualitative judgements of marketing professionals have yielded better RMSEs and MAPEs on small sample periods than the OLS models. We have incorporated statistical techniques developed by the Henley Centre and the procedures based on those techniques as developed by United Distillers to identify sets of competing brands from among all brands. This subphase of the project incorporates standard expert systems technology but does not extend it. In collaboration with Henley Centre, we are now incorporating tests of non-linearity in the data in order to determine whether our simulated results match the actual data in that regard. As work has progressed, we have been increasing our reliance on matches between simulation output and reliable numerical data series to assess whether the qualitative aspects of the models are consistent with the observed numbers and we are developing formal techniques to support
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Organisation Website:	http://www.mmu.ac.uk