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Details of Grant 

EPSRC Reference: EP/V013319/1
Title: DMS-EPSRC Sharp Large Deviation Estimates of Fluctuations in Stochastic Hydrodynamic Systems
Principal Investigator: Grafke, Dr T
Other Investigators:
Researcher Co-Investigators:
Project Partners:
City University of New York New York University
Department: Mathematics
Organisation: University of Warwick
Scheme: Standard Research - NR1
Starts: 01 October 2020 Ends: 30 September 2023 Value (£): 121,402
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:
Continuum Mechanics Non-linear Systems Mathematics
Numerical Analysis
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:
No relevance to Underpinning Sectors
Related Grants:
Panel History:  
Summary on Grant Application Form
Extreme events can be highly impactful. They are typically rare, which is fortunate if their consequences are negative on society, but also makes them difficult to predict. The scope of this project is to develop computational tools that can be applied to gain understanding of how extreme events occur in complex stochastic systems. Examples are models for the forecasting of extreme weather-related events like tropical storms and flooding as well as the spread of pollutants in case of ocean oil spills. Our tools will enable researchers to ask questions beyond of what is currently possible. This will lead to transformative improvement of current predictive models, which is essential for efficient management of natural and man made disasters. Further applications include the characterization of extreme events in stochastic models that behave similar to fluids, for example in the context of epidemics, traffic, and star formation.
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Organisation Website: http://www.warwick.ac.uk