Details of Grant 

EPSRC Reference:	EP/I017755/1
Title:	Quantifying the disruptive impact of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) on air traffic flows through UK airspace.
Principal Investigator:	Budd, Professor L
Other Investigators:
Researcher Co-Investigators:
Project Partners:
Department:	Civil and Building Engineering
Organisation:	Loughborough University
Scheme:	First Grant - Revised 2009
Starts:	04 January 2012	Ends:	03 July 2013	Value (£):	90,634
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:	Transport Ops & Management
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:	Transport Systems and Vehicles
Related Grants:
Panel History:	Panel Date Panel Name Outcome 10 Feb 2011 Process Environment & Sustainability Announced
Summary on Grant Application Form
Concern about the environmental impact of aircraft operations is currently high on political and scientific agendas. However, while the relationship between aircraft emissions and climate change has been systematically investigated, far less is understood about the impacts future climate change may have on the aviation industry. While a number of potential impacts of climate change, including sea level rise and temperature changes, on the aviation sector have been identified, there is a dearth of original research that explicitly analyses the infrastructural and operational threats a changing climate may pose to the UK's commercial aviation sector. One of the anticipated outcomes of climate change is an increase in thunderstorm activity.At present, thunderstorms, and associated convective weather activity, represent a major source of air traffic network disruption. The atmospheric environment in and around a thunderstorm represents one of the most hazardous airborne environments an aircraft may encounter, while on the ground, thunderstorms and associated atmospheric phenomena have the potential to close airports, reduce runway capacities for landings and take-offs, and hinder or prevent normal ground servicing and flight turnaround operations. Though the sophistication of modern meteorological forecasts and weather radar means that the location and intensity of storms can be predicted, located, and often avoided with increasing accuracy, a significant number of fatal aircraft crashes have been attributed, at least in part, to aircraft encountering adverse weather conditions in the take-off, en-route, or final approach phases of a flight. Most pilots endeavor to avoid known areas of thunderstorm activity by requesting alternative headings and/or flightlevels and will often accept significant deviations from their submitted flightplans to avoid the most turbulent areas of the atmopshere. This practice almost inevitably results in longer flight times, higher emissions, and greater operating costs for the airlines concerned. By studying the effect of convective weather on air traffic flows through a carefully selected region of UK airspace, this research will address a significant gap in the existing knowledge base. It will quantify the effects of convective weather on air traffic flows in terms of increased fuel burn and emissions and will establish a minimum threshold for CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy - a measure of energy and a proxy for levels of turbulence in the atmosphere) in J/kg above which disruption to normal air traffic flows is experienced. Then, using future CAPE meteorologies for 2020, 2030, and 2040, the research will assess the likely impact of climate change (in terms of frequency of CAPE threshold exceedence) on air traffic flows through UK airspace. The findings of the research will be of value both to the UK and to the air navigation service providers of overseas nations as it will help them plan for future network disruption thereby minimising costs to users.
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Organisation Website:	http://www.lboro.ac.uk