| EPSRC Reference: |
EP/H034005/1 |
| Title: |
Predicting extremes in complex systems: a statistical physics/data-based approach |
| Principal Investigator: |
Kwasniok, Dr F |
| Other Investigators: |
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| Researcher Co-Investigators: |
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| Project Partners: |
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| Department: |
Engineering Computer Science and Maths |
| Organisation: |
University of Exeter |
| Scheme: |
First Grant - Revised 2009 |
| Starts: |
01 August 2010 |
Ends: |
31 December 2012 |
Value (£): |
101,345
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| EPSRC Research Topic Classifications: |
| Non-linear Systems Mathematics |
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| EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications: |
| No relevance to Underpinning Sectors |
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| Related Grants: |
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| Panel History: |
| Panel Date | Panel Name | Outcome |
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04 Mar 2010
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Mathematics Prioritisation Panel
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Announced
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Summary on Grant Application Form |
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This proposal aims to develop and explore novel mathematical and computational techniques for probabilistic prediction of extreme events in a complex dynamical system, from its recorded time series. It draws on ideas and concepts from applied nonlinear dynamical systems, nonlinear time series analysis and information theory. Specifically, we propose to develop three methodologies and explore their potential to improve prediction of extremes over more conventional methods: (i) introducing a metric in state space which measures distances between initial conditions as differences in information about the probability distribution of extremes using the concept of information geometry; (ii) systematic identification of precursors of extreme events by maximising mutual information; (iii) nonlinear regime-dependent prediction models.Two real-world applications will be tackled: (i) prediction of extremes in large-scale midlatitudinal atmospheric wave activity which is relevant to European storminess and (ii) prediction of turbulent gusts in the atmospheric boundary layer which is relevant to wind energy production.
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Key Findings |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Potential use in non-academic contexts |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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Impacts |
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| Description |
This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk |
| Summary |
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| Date Materialised |
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Sectors submitted by the Researcher |
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This information can now be found on Gateway to Research (GtR) http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk
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| Project URL: |
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| Further Information: |
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| Organisation Website: |
http://www.ex.ac.uk |